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Real Madrid continue their Champions League campaign on Wednesday in Athens, having gone unbeaten so far in the competition. The Spanish giants travel to face an AEK side in a serious slump, making them clear favorites on paper. For the Greeks, however, picking up points is crucial.
Real Madrid arrive in Greece in excellent form: José Mourinho’s side have won six straight competitive matches, most recently beating Racing Santander 3–0 away from home.
Their Champions League form is even more impressive. Wins over Inter, Roma, and RB Leipzig have brought them nine points and ten goals scored, leaving them fourth in the league phase table. With Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, and Jude Bellingham, Madrid boast several attackers capable of deciding a match on their own.
AEK Athens find themselves in a much tougher spot. Marko Nikolic’s side started their Champions League campaign with a 1–0 win over LASK, before losing 3–1 to Shakhtar Donetsk and 5–1 to Manchester City.
The Greeks have lost four of their last five competitive matches, so form isn’t on their side either. Interestingly, though, AEK remain unbeaten at home against Real Madrid: of their two previous meetings in Athens, they won one and drew the other.
AEK Athens–Real Madrid: injuries and absentees
For the hosts, Thomas Strakosha is unavailable due to a hand injury, while João Mário and Lazaros Rota are doubtful. Up front, former Real Madrid player Luka Jović and Hungary international Barnabás Varga could pose the biggest threat.
Real Madrid will definitely be without Rodrygo and Raúl Asencio, while Ferland Mendy remains sidelined. Federico Valverde has returned to training and could feature. Vinícius Júnior, meanwhile, is available, as his domestic suspension doesn’t apply in the Champions League.
AEK Athens–Real Madrid betting tips
There’s a significant quality gap between the two sides, and current form clearly favors the visitors as well. Real Madrid have scored ten goals in three Champions League matches, while AEK have conceded eight combined against Shakhtar and Manchester City.
We believe Madrid’s attacking line will prove too much for the Greek defense to handle. The hosts will likely try to defend in an organized shape, but given Mbappé and co.’s current form, we expect at least two away goals.
That’s why we’re backing a handicap win for Real Madrid, though as an alternative we’d also consider the Real Madrid over 2.5 team goals market, albeit with higher risk. AEK should be more resilient at home than they were away at Manchester City, but given Madrid’s attacking firepower, a multi-goal margin wouldn’t be a surprise either.
AEK Athens–Real Madrid: Wednesday, November 4, 18:45, Allwyn Arena. TV: Sport1