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Saturday evening sees the eighth round of the Italian championship continue with the clash between Napoli and Roma. The two sides arrive in very different form for the match known as the Derby del Sole: the Romans lead their rivals by seven points, while Napoli have gone eight league meetings unbeaten against them at home.
Napoli have had an up-and-down start to the season. Massimiliano Allegri’s side have scored ten goals in seven rounds, but have lost their last two league matches. The 1–0 defeat to bottom-placed Venezia was particularly painful and put the team under serious pressure.
However, Napoli bounced back in midweek, beating Bodø/Glimt 4–3 in an eventful Champions League encounter. The question now is whether they can carry that momentum into the league.
Roma, on the other hand, arrive in Naples in excellent form. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have scored 16 goals in seven rounds while conceding just three, giving them one of the most effective attacks and best defenses in Serie A.
The Romans have gone five league matches unbeaten, most recently beating Genoa 2–0, and they also scored four goals in their midweek Champions League fixture.
Napoli–Roma: injuries and absences
Napoli will be without Alessandro Buongiorno, David Neres, Alisson Santos, and Costantino Favasuli due to injury. Antonio Vergara has returned to training and could potentially make the squad.
Roma are also missing several key players. Paulo Dybala is dealing with a calf injury, while Manu Koné and Mile Svilar are both ruled out. Lorenzo Pellegrini picked up an injury in the midweek match and will also be unavailable to Gasperini.
The visitors’ biggest weapon could be Donyell Malen, who has scored nine goals in nine club matches this season.
Napoli–Roma betting tips
Napoli traditionally perform well at home against Roma, but given the visitors’ current form, we expect an extremely close contest.
Major international prediction platforms’ statistical models also point to a tight match. One model gives Napoli a 43.24% chance of winning, Roma a 31.12% chance, and puts the draw at 25.67%.
From a betting perspective, we find the both teams to score option interesting. Napoli scored four goals in midweek, and Roma’s attack has been particularly effective. Although the visitors’ defense is solid, the absence of key players could leave them more vulnerable now.
As an alternative, Roma +0.5 Asian handicap—meaning a Roma win or draw—is also worth considering. Given the Romans’ better league form, we see a realistic chance of them taking at least a point from Naples. Odds were sourced from Boabet, where new players can currently claim a welcome bonus of up to 400,000 HUF.
Napoli–Roma: Saturday, October 24, 18:00, Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.