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The seventh round of the Italian championship continues on Sunday evening with the Juventus–Lazio derby. The two sides head into the match in very different form: the Romans sit top of the table, while Turin currently occupy only sixth place.
Juventus have collected 11 points from six rounds, with a record of three wins, two draws, and one loss. Luciano Spalletti’s side most recently drew 1–1 away to Cagliari, and before that suffered a surprise home defeat to Cremonese.
Turin’s defense, however, remains solid, having conceded just five goals in six league games. What’s more, they are traditionally hard to beat at the Allianz Stadium.
Juventus–Lazio: Sunday, October 18, 20:45, Allianz Stadium, Turin.
Lazio, by contrast, have made an excellent start to the season. Gennaro Gattuso’s side are joint top of the table with Inter on 16 points and remain unbeaten after six rounds. The Romans most recently beat Monza 3–1, and before that took all three points away to Venezia.
The two sides’ recent head-to-head record is evenly balanced: of their last nine league meetings, Juventus won three, Lazio won three, and three ended in draws.
Juventus–Lazio: Injuries and Absentees
Several key Juventus players are doubtful. Kenan Yildiz, Khéphren Thuram, Manuel Locatelli, and Jeremie Boga are all dealing with injuries, which could leave Spalletti with problems mainly in midfield and attack.
Lazio could be without Matteo Cancellieri and Albert Gudmundsson, while Nicolò Rovella and Adam Marusic are also doubtful. For the visitors, Gustav Isaksen, Mattia Zaccagni, and Davide Frattesi could pose the biggest threat to the Turin goal.
Juventus–Lazio Betting Tips
According to statistical models, Juventus have a 55.35% chance of winning, while the probability of a draw stands at 25.76% and a Lazio win at 18.89%.
Based on the numbers, Juventus are favorites, though Lazio’s excellent form means an easy home win is far from guaranteed.
From a betting perspective, we find the under 3.5 goals option the most interesting. Sports Mole’s model puts the probability of this at 72.95%, supported by Juventus’s solid defense and both teams’ expected more cautious approach.
As an alternative, Lazio +1.5 Asian handicap is also worth considering. Based on their form so far, the Romans stand a good chance of making it a close match in Turin.