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On Thursday night, Italy and France face off in the key Nations League Group A showdown. The French lead the group by three points and could secure first place with another win. The Italians, however, will be looking to bounce back on home soil, so we expect a tightly contested match.
Since Roberto Mancini’s return, the Italian national team has gradually found its form. Following a 2–0 defeat to Belgium, they beat Turkey 4–1 away and 3–1 at home, and then held France to a 1–1 draw in Paris.
After four rounds, Italy sit in second place with seven points, just one point ahead of Belgium. Picking up points in Milan is therefore especially important, as they’ll travel to Belgium in the final round.
Under Zinedine Zidane, France remain unbeaten in the competition. The World Cup runners-up have collected ten points from four matches, beating Belgium twice and also picking up all three points against Turkey.
France’s defense has been particularly solid: they’ve conceded just two goals in four matches and have yet to concede away from home.
Italy–France: injuries and absences
For Italy, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori, and Moise Kean are all unavailable, while Gianluca Mancini has been ruled out of the squad with a muscle injury. Gianluca Scamacca and Pio Esposito could play key roles up front.
For France, William Saliba, Ousmane Dembélé, Manu Koné, and Maghnes Akliouche are missing, and Pierre Kalulu has also picked up an injury. Dayot Upamecano, however, could return from suspension, while Kylian Mbappé is expected to lead the attack.
Italy-France betting tips
Italy’s attack has improved significantly in recent weeks, but France’s fast, technical forwards could pose serious problems for Mancini’s defense.
The visitors have the edge in defensive solidity and a more stable results record, though we also expect a more cautious approach given the stakes of this Milan showdown.
We believe France currently have a somewhat stronger squad, and their counterattacks could be especially dangerous.
October’s meeting in Paris ended 1–1, and France have conceded just two goals in four matches in this competition. That’s why we expect a low-scoring game, with France avoiding defeat as well.
Italy–France: Thursday, November 12, 20:45, San Siro, Milan.
Odds were taken from Boabet. Odds are subject to change.