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On Saturday evening, Newcastle United host Aston Villa in the seventh round of the Premier League. Neither side has made a great start to the season, but based on recent weeks’ form, the visitors can approach the match with more confidence.
Newcastle have picked up eight points from six games, with a record of two wins, two draws, and two defeats. Matthias Jaissle’s side have lost both of their last two away matches 4–1, first to Leeds and then to Coventry.
The Magpies’ biggest problem is their defence: they have conceded 13 goals in six league games, the joint-worst record in the division. At home, however, they remain unbeaten in their last five matches, which could offer some encouragement.
Aston Villa’s start to the league campaign has been even worse, with Unai Emery’s side sitting 16th with just five points. In recent weeks, though, their form has improved markedly. They have won four of their last six competitive matches, and on Wednesday thrashed Fenerbahce 6–0 in the Champions League.
The visitors’ away form is particularly encouraging: since the first round, they have won three of their four away matches and drawn the other.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Injuries and Absentees
Newcastle remain without Anthony Elanga, Jacob Ramsey, Ewen Jaouen, and Tino Livramento, all sidelined through injury. Bazoumana Traoré’s involvement is in doubt due to a knee issue, while Joelinton could return to the starting lineup.
Aston Villa are missing Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen, Matteo Ruggeri, and Modo Cisse through injury. Leon Goretzka, however, has already featured in midweek Champions League action, and Nicolas Jackson is in excellent form, having scored four goals in his last three matches.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa Betting Tips
Sports Mole’s statistical model expects an extremely even contest. Newcastle are given a 38.31% chance of winning, the visitors 35.46%, and a draw 26.23%.
Given Newcastle’s defensive issues and Aston Villa’s improving attack, the visitors look well placed to find the net. Sports Mole’s model puts the probability of the both teams to score option at 58.24%.
From a betting perspective, we see value in Aston Villa draw no bet (DNB). Based on the visitors’ form, they could well take all three points, while the draw-no-bet cover reduces the risk.
As an alternative, the both teams to score market is also worth considering, provided the odds are right.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Saturday, October 17, 18:30, St. James’ Park.