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What are Nadal’s chances at Roland Garros in 2024?
Rafa Nadal, returning after a long lay-off, has reached the last 16 at the Madrid Masters and has already shown the kind of play that many consider him a favourite at Roland Garros. Can the Spanish star make one last big run?
Fans of Rafa Nadal can be satisfied with what they saw at the Madrid Open, as the 38-year-old King of the Clay marched all the way to the fourth round. Rafa has timed his return to the 2024 clay season after months off, but even he didn’t know in advance how his body would cope with the strain.
He missed the Monte Carlo tournament, but was already in Barcelona, where he was beaten in two sets by Alex de Minaur in the second round.
Rafa then competed in Madrid, where we saw a completely different Nadal. In his first match, the veteran classy won easily against a 16-year-old American, but in the second round, he fought back to beat De Minaur and this time he won in two sets. In the third round, he defeated Pedro Cachin in a marathon 3-hour battle, only to be beaten 2-0 by young Jiri Lehecka in round 4.
After the Madrid tournament, it became quite clear that Rafa Nadal is still competitive.
At least on clay. He moved much better on court than he did in Barcelona, and he was able to withstand the physical strain for much longer, which obviously did his confidence a lot of good.
Rafa said that his body responded very well to the Madrid match and he will be competing in the Rome Masters this week. He has previously won the Italian Open 10 times, so this is one of his favourite tournaments.
Embed from Getty ImagesBut the Rome tournament is of course just a prelude for Rafa, as the big goal remains Roland Garros and the Summer Olympics. Rafa has said he will decide whether to play Roland Garros after Rome, but at this stage it is hard to imagine him not playing the French Open.
Could Rafa be in with a chance of winning his 15th Roland Garros trophy or any other tournament?
Although Rafa Nadal has categorically ruled out the possibility of being a Roland Garros contender, his rivals see it differently. Three-time Monte Carlo winner Stefanos Tsitsipas is confident that Nadal is up for the big time in Paris, while Daniil Medvedev says that Nadal is still feared by the top players in the world.
If Nadal’s body is in the right condition, he could cause a surprise in Paris. But it is hard to imagine him excelling in three straight sets over two weeks. The big question is whether or not the organisers will highlight Nadal at the Garros. If not, she could get a TOP10 or TOP5 player in the first round because of her low ranking. But if she gets a ranking, she could go all the way to the second week of the tournament, and from there, anything is possible.
The fact that Jannik Sinner and Carlo Alcaraz are out with injuries does not hurt Nadalt’s chances. Although Roland Garros is still more than two weeks away, it is not a good sign that the two favourites are struggling.However, Novak Djokovic, who has won three times in Paris, is healthy. The tennis world would like to see another Nadal-Djokovic battle as a one-man…
In any case, the bookmakers no longer see it as realistic to win another tournament. It is not even known exactly how many tournaments Rafa will play. At Roland Garros, Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner are also the favourites to win the final.
However, we have found an interesting anomaly in one of the most popular betting sites. 22bet is offering Nadal at 7x odds in the outright markets for Roland Garros 2024, but is offering him at 11x odds in the outright markets for Nadal player special bets.
