We found a strong tip for Newcastle’s home tie

BL aspirants Newcastle are in poor form and must win now.

The Boxing Day fixture kicks off with Newcastle-Nottingham, with the top match taking place in the evening between Manchester United and Aston Villa. Now let’s see what’s in store at St. James’s Park!

In no small surprise, Newcastle are coming off a home defeat to newcomers Luton. Eddie Howe’s side are now further behind the top 4, where they are now also challenging Aston Villa for a place in the top 3, with a 10-point lead over the Magpies. Another league fiasco after the BL knockout could be very painful for United supporters, but Joelinton’s side will need to improve their away performance. After all, Newcastle have only 5(!) points away from home, while they have the most league wins at home.

Like the Magpies, Forest were also beaten, although Boly’s sending off meant Nottingham played most of the game with 10 men. Bournemouth also scored the winner in the 93rd minute at the City Ground, leaving Steve Cooper’s side just 2 points off the line.

Despite United’s superb home form, we can’t take the home odds of around 1.50 for this game. We’ll stick to the corner market, where we have found an exciting idea. The two teams are in the bottom half when it comes to averages, Forest for example have the second fewest corner kicks in the league. And if you add up the teams’ averages, we’re still only around 8.3, so there’s plenty of value in this tip on a 10.0 line.