We don’t expect any surprises in the Bayern-Real Madrid tie

The last time the Munich team got past the Los Blancos was in 2012, and based on the odds, the series will not end now.

Manchester City-Arsenal will be replaced by Bayern Munich-Real Madrid in the semi-finals of the 2023/24 Champions League. The two giants reached the semi-finals as underdogs despite the fact that they have won the UCL trophy 20 times in total, the former 13 times and the latter 17 times so far reaching the top four.

It is interesting that the sides have met only once in the group stage, but this will be their 13th straight relegation match, and lately the Spaniards have clearly dominated. The framework has changed a lot since their last meeting in 2018, but even though Cristiano Ronaldo or Benzema are no longer there, based on the balance of power, the balance still tilts in favor of Madrid.

Team news

Bayern had one of the weakest seasons in recent years, and Bayer Leverkusen was deprived of its 12th championship gold in a row already in April. In the German Cup, the team lost early against the third division Saarbrücken, but that’s why football is beautiful, that the opportunity lives on to save the season. For this, the Tuchel crew would have to win the Champions League trophy they won most recently in 2020, but there are several complicating factors. Starting with the fact that playing the second leg away from home is a serious disadvantage in itself, but several key players are struggling with injuries.

In the offensive line, Coman will definitely not play, and Sané and Gnabry are questionable, although in principle they will get the green light from the medical staff. Neither Laimer nor De Ligt are 100 percent, even though they both played a major role in Arsenal’s elimination. It is possible that the defensive pair Dier-Kim will start before Neuer, this section is the most vulnerable for Munich throughout the season. Kane, who has scored seven goals in the series and is chasing Mbappé, who is one goal ahead of him, in the race for the title of top scorer, will probably not be successful.

Did you know? Bayern’s record against Spanish teams is 33 wins, 16 draws and 20 losses, but at home they have 21 wins and only four defeats out of 32 meetings.

The formation for the guests is much clearer, as Alaba and Curtois are still unavailable, and Carvajal is suspended. Apart from them, however, everyone can fight, and Ancelotti’s starting line-up includes only world-class players. The elimination of City was not a coincidence either, on the one hand, Real is protected by a kind of shield from relegation in this series (they won the trophy in the last 10/5 seasons), and on the other hand, Ancelotti developed a tactic that completely removed Haaland from the field both in two meetings. The main test also went well, as Sociedad managed to win at home with several important players watching the events only from the bench.

What is worth betting on?

Real Madrid has already crossed the finish line by half a foot in La Liga, where it will soon be able to claim its 36th gold medal. In this way, Ancelotti can rest his players as he pleases, so that everyone can give their best for the UCL, but the bench is also stronger than the Spaniards. Real only lost two competitive games this season, both against city rivals Atléti, and it should be noted that they scored in all (24) of their away games.

With Bayern, it is also very rare that they do not score in front of their own audience, moreover, if this did not happen on Tuesday, the chance of progressing would be reduced to a minimum. So, goal-goal is a given, but at the same time, we don’t expect such a crazy matchup as in the quarter-finals, here the stake is to reach the final and both tacticians are close to setting up for a massive defense.

As a side tip, we also look at the Pavlovic yellow, the Munich-born guy often gets too heated when he gets the chance, and with such a bet, he is even more likely to make a mistake. He picked up seven yellow cards in 21 games this season, which also shows that he is not far from being tough, his frustration is likely to be greater than average against the world-class Real forwards.