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The role of luck in gambling – everything you need to know as a gambler
“Luck is not that something happens, but that we are in the universe where it happened”
If you’re on Topsters site, you’re probably also interested in a form of gambling called sports betting. And if you’ve ever gambled your money in any form, whether it’s the lottery, sports betting or even just a coin toss, you’ve probably heard the phrase “I wish I was lucky.“
As the odds of winning the Eurojackpot are 1 in 140 million. So you might need a bit more than just luck, but say you have a 50% chance of getting the right bet on a coin toss. But what if we can’t get those 50% odds for a long time? Have they conspired against us upstairs and taken our luck? As sports bettors and gamblers, luck is an essential part of our lives, but we can never rely on it. In this article we look at how luck works, what you can do to get it, how you can get it back.
Also we’re going to find out whether there are really such things as predestined lucky or unlucky people.
What is luck?
As the Webster’s dictionary puts it, luck is “an unintelligent, unpredictable, uncontrollable force that shapes the favorable or unfavorable course of events for an individual, a group, or a cause.”
Because we see luck as an event completely independent of us, greater than us, over which we have no control, we have been searching for centuries, millennia, for a means to bring it about, to draw it in. Just think of a superstitious player who jumps onto the pitch with his left foot. He believs that this will make him play better, or who never changes his underwear for a striker in the goal-scoring column. But in countless religions there was also a goddess of fortune, not to mention the much-mentioned Roman goddess Fortuna.
However, research shows that luck can still be partly influenced – at least that’s what a study by Richard Wiseman says. He writes that lucky people make their good fortune based on four basic principles:
- Ability to recognise and create opportunities that emerge
- Make lucky decisions using their intuition
- Create self-fulfilling prophecies based on positive expectations
- Their flexible attitude turns bad luck into good
And further research shows that good mood and good luck often go hand in hand. The lucky person happy and optimistic and the unlucky person nervous and depressed. But this could also lead us to conclude what many people assume is a basic assumption: that luck doesn’t really exist, but is rather influenced by our attitudes.
And most importantly, all of the above can be applied to sports betting, which is what we will discuss below.
The role of luck in gambling
The title itself may sound strange, as the word gambling itself is the subject of this article. But it is important to note that the different forms of gambling are very different and rely on luck in very different ways.
Whether we are talking about sports betting, casino, crypto or poker, it can all be said that we risk our money on events largely unrelated to us. We have no idea what the outcome of a match will be, what will spin on the roulette wheel, which way bitcoin will go or what the river will be. But comparing these games to each other is very much worthwhile in this respect.
The luck in casino games
Whereas in sports betting luck is a factor that can be eliminated in the long run, just as in poker there are objectively good decisions, at the roulette table we sit down with the idea that luck is the only way to win in the long run. Since most casino games and slot machines are set up so that we can’t win in the long run. We have no choice but to hope for a smaller sample size or that we will be the small fraction who don’t even out the numbers in a longer sample.
Although the room takes rake in poker, there is a fee in crypto and there is a margin built into the odds, we have much more influence on the decisions than in the example above. But lest we wander off completely, let’s just stick to our favourite hobby, sports betting.
The relationship between luck and sports betting
“Luck is when preparedness is matched by opportunity. If you’re not prepared when the opportunity opens up, you’re out of luck” – Oprah.
And Oprah’s words echo the words of a US Attorney General, William Lynch, who highlighted something we often say, which we’ll call, in short, the search for positive expected value.
“Sports betting requires considerable expertise. Sports bettors can do the most for their fortunes by knowing the sport, the teams and the odds, and being able to translate that into the language of numbers.”
In fact, sports betting sits in the middle of the luck-skill scale. It ranges from roulette to chess, the former being purely luck, the latter being knowledge and skill – well, we’re halfway there.
The role of luck in each sport
Just as roulette is more of a game of chance than sports betting, there are some sports within the latter where you can rely more on the factor. The best example, according to a New York statistician, is the difference between basketball and hockey. The former has up to 200-250 points a game, while the latter often has only 4-5. This means that in an NBA game, luck plays less of a role than skill, while in an NHL game, a bouncing puck can be fatal. And that’s not even mentioning football, which is even lower-scoring than hockey…
In sports betting, the debate between luck and skill is indeed influenced by some differences between sports. The number of players and scoring chances are clearly dependent, as are many other aspects of the sport.
Can we be born lucky or unlucky in sports betting?
The reason why it is extremely difficult to judge this is that, as an individual, there is almost a complete lack of objectivity in most cases. Bettors are often biased towards themselves, and negative emotions are felt much more strongly than positive ones.
When a bettor is lucky, he takes it for granted; when he is unlucky, it can only be a supernatural curse and eternal damnation.
Thus, we tend to label ourselves as simply unlucky, when in the long run the two balance each other out. However, to limit the luck factor in the long term, we really need to take action. Just because we are losing money betting on sports does not make us unlucky, as we are only one of the 98% of bettors.
How can luck be excluded from sports betting?
A good sports bettor should not rely on luck because he knows he has a big problem. Although the luck factor influences the outcome of a football match or any bet, a professional does not deal with the short term, the one-off failure and thinks in the long term.
That being said, it is a clear basic truth that a good sports bettor is not a lucky gambler, but a hard-working, dedicated player.
He always puts in the time and energy to know where and how to beat a bookmaker. And if you don’t have time, trust the best tipsters.
If you are feeling unlucky, you are not really thinking in terms of perspective. You are just living your current emotions. If someone is really professional and does their homework, analyses the match, finds the betting shop’s weaknesses and can take a valuable tip. Then in the long run luck becomes an irrelevant factor for them.
Find the best bookmakers and best bonuses
Whatever form of gambling you take, the most important thing is to make good choices. Such good decisions include taking advantage of various sports betting and casino promotions. If you can gamble without making a deposit at casino rooms, you’re already making a good decisio. You can use to build a decent bankroll with this tactic.
Besides, different betting sites have different deposit bonuses, so it’s a good idea to keep up to date with this. Many bookmakers offer periodic deposit bonuses or even permanent promotions, which we also report on here at Topsters. And with the best bookmakers in the world, you’re sure to make a good decision that will reduce the need to rely on luck for your bets a little.
