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Everything you need to know about Sunday’s crucial Italian matches – tips, scenarios
We have analysed the last round of Serie A, where we have both solo and combi picks for you.
We woke up to a crucial morning on Sunday, as the other elimination, along with Sassuolo and Salernitana, could be decided. The conditional mode is only true because it could be a scenario where Spareggio are tied for 18th place, so it’s not easy to bet on Sunday’s 38th round match. But let’s have a look at what’s in store!
Bronze medal, European Cup qualification
The situation is a bit complicated, as Atalanta and Fiorentina still have games that could be important in the final standings. As it stands, there are 8 teams in the international cups, which could be 9 if Fiorentina win the Conference League without finishing higher than 8th. The Viola would then qualify for the Europa League, while the ECL position would drop to 9th place, with Torino and Napoli fighting for it.
Another important factor is the position of Atalanta, which we have also written about before. If the Bergamo side get at least 3 points in two games, they will finish ahead of Bologna, and Roma will miss out on the CL.
It seems impossible to guess how motivated the Bergamo side are, but in any case, the Gazzetta’s preliminary starting line-up features almost the same basic team, with the exception of Lookman, against whom Torino can in no way be real favourites. As pointed out by several comments, it wouldn’t be financially worthwhile for Atalanta to send Roma to the CL, so we’ll take the “unexpected paper” in this match.
No bet, let the goals come?
There’s no real stakes in the Verona-Inter and Lazio-Sassuolo games, although the Roma side still need a point to secure their EL start. That could probably come against relegated and discredited Sassuolo, especially as Davide Ballardini could rotate his starting line-up in several places.
The champions’ trip to Verona doesn’t even have that much at stake, and Lautaro’s side last time out kicked a six at the Bentegodi, where it looks like a joyous game with both teams involved.
We’re combining for these two games, expecting at least 3 goals in each of the meetings. We’ll skip the Napoli-Lecce clash, although the South should win here in principle if they want an international cup next season.
Empoli, Udinese, Frosinone or none of the above?
But the fight against relegation could be all the more interesting. Even with the odds, Empoli are the most likely to be eliminated, with the fate of the Blue and Whites in their own hands. Moreover, Roma have Paredes and Lukaku suspended, Dybala is injured and Rui Patricio is not healthy, so it looks like a rotated starting line-up against Empoli, who are fighting for their lives.
Although a win for Niang seems like a good bet, we don’t think we’ll take it at 2 times odds, we’ve seen much higher numbers. We don’t really have a good idea for this 90 minutes as we can’t see into Daniele De Rossi’s head unfortunately.
The Frosinone-Udinese game, on the other hand, looks like a clear-cut one, as far as the best bet is concerned, and no, not the cards… Because this knockout match was also won by Daniele Doveri, who is capable of winning any match by 2-3 cards at any time, so we’ll skip the 5.0 limit.
However, we are convinced that the teams will play for time here. A draw at the kick-off whistle suits both teams, and we think only a first-half Empoli goal can overturn calm football. Should Davide Nicola’s side go into the break with the lead, the game between the two teams could liven up, but not before then.
This match will definitely be worth betting on live, especially if Roma take the lead. If the Wolves score, or even pull away by two goals, we can expect some anti-football and parlour football that will be a joy to watch.
