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Rakow – Atalanta tips&prediction
Atalanta travelled to Poland with a much rejuvenated squad, already top of the group.
In Group D of the Europa League, it was already decided before the penultimate round that Atalanta would win the group, with Sporting in second place, while Sturm Graz and Rakow are still in a battle for the 3rd place in the EKL, which means the continuation of the EKL. The former will visit Lisbon and the latter will host Atalanta, and this meeting has seen a huge odds break, with some bookies offering odds of over 4.00 for the home side, while at the time of writing the average odds stand at 2.00.
Team news
Behind the odds is Atalanta’s fixture list. Gian Piero Gasperini made some last-minute changes, postponing the pre-match press conference and kick-off, and taking a 21-man squad to Poland with only half of the squad playing in the league.
Of Atalanta’s 21-man match squad, 10 players have not played a single minute in this season’s Serie A campaign.
There are a few adult players from the first team, though, with Carnesecchi, Holm, Zortea, Hateboer, Pašalić, De Ketelaere, Mirancsuk and Muriel not really needing to be introduced to Italian football fans. They are likely to play, probably as starters, but it is understandable that bettors have started to destroy Rakow’s odds.
Moreover, this is an important game for the Poles, as they could win the cup in the spring if they win, but a draw could be enough for them if Sturm go down at home to Sporting.
What is worth betting on?
We’ve seen time and time again that Italian teams don’t take uninteresting matches so seriously. We could see something similar this time, a team half loaded with youngsters doesn’t send out the message that the Bergamo side will drink blood here. Of course, a top league B team can be stronger than a Polish championship side, so it’s hard to say how much value has been lost in the odds of a home win.
Probably a lot, as Gasperini can produce a stronger starting line-up than his Polish counterpart, the question is how well the expected substitutes can come in or how much they can set the team back.
What is certain is that Gasperini will take advantage of all the substitutions and with the result not weighing on Atalanta’s shoulders, this could even start at half-time. Rakow can only change if the house is on fire, so we expect Atalanta to make the first substitution, which we can bet on at odds of 1.85.
This is our main tip for the match, but fans of higher odds can also try scenarios that aim for a fluctuation or change of result. It is not impossible that Atalanta will be weaker in the second half and Rakow will be the more motivated, and the following picks can be adjusted to this scenario.
