Premier League: Who will be the champion in 2025?

Liverpool have overtaken their rivals and are confidently leading the English league. A supercomputer has already calculated that Liverpool will be the Premier League champions, but the bookmakers’ odds are still an open race.

Before the 2024/25 season kicked off, Liverpool fans had every reason to feel doubtful. Replacing club legend Jürgen Klopp with Arne Slot didn’t exactly seem like a progressive move. These concerns only grew given the mixed results of another Dutch manager, Erik ten Hag, at Manchester United. However, a few months in, even the most skeptical fans have come to trust Slot, who has led Liverpool to an impressive 15 wins out of 17 games, establishing a strong league lead and securing a Champions League title without dropping a single point.

Liverpool’s competitors are also playing into their hands; Manchester City stumbled again over the weekend. Liverpool capitalized on this, widening their lead at the top of the Premier League to five points with a 2-0 victory over Aston Villa in their 11th match of the season. Notably, this marked Pep Guardiola’s fourth consecutive defeat, a first in his managerial career.

Focusing on Liverpool, they sit on 28 points—three points shy of the tally Klopp’s team achieved after 11 games during their Premier League-winning season. However, this hasn’t impacted their chances significantly. Opta’s supercomputer now gives Liverpool a 59.3% likelihood of winning the title.

This shift is remarkable considering that the same supercomputer, which ran 10,000 simulations before the season, only gave Liverpool a 5.1% chance of winning. By contrast, Manchester City, the reigning champions with four consecutive titles and six in the past seven seasons, were projected to win 82.2% of the time. That probability, however, has now fallen to 36.2%.

Premier League 2024/2025 outrights odds

In betting terms, Liverpool’s odds should theoretically be around 1.69x based on the supercomputer’s projections. Yet, bookmakers are still cautious, keeping the numbers slightly tighter. As shown below, while bet365 now considers Liverpool the favorite with odds of 2.25, the drop in Manchester City’s odds to 3.25 still isn’t too drastic.