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Chasing big odds on Uruguay-Colombia

Nuances could decide the Uruguay-Colombia semi-final, where a penalty shoot-out drama would not surprise us.

As expected, Argentina will face either Uruguay or Colombia in the 2024 Copa América final. And the either-or tag could hardly be more justified, as at the time of writing the odds on the two teams to win are really only hundreds of a point apart on Betfair, while most places in the qualification market are offering odds of 1.90-1.90. Is there a strong bet on such a match?

The common point between the teams is that both sides actually went through Brazil on their way to the last 4. Colombia drew with Selecao in the group to win the quartet, while Uruguay knocked out the inglorious Rodríguos in the quarter-finals on penalties. It is almost impossible to find a difference between the two sides’ performances, as the Celeste have a goal difference of 9-1 to the Cavaliers’ 10-1, with both teams taking a game 5-0.

It is not insignificant that Marcelo Bielsa’s side will be without two key players, Ronald Araujo and Nahitan Nández, which could give Colombia a slight advantage.

But what kind of advantage does a team that is unbeaten in 27 games and a triumvirate of Díaz-Córdoba-James in sensational form need to scare the opposition?

Only 3 of the 10 goals were not scored or assisted by one of them.

While there is a 2 goal scorer on the other side in Darwin Nunez, this is a massive argument for Colombia, so we fully agree that although the bookmakers have their men open as favourites, this is starting to turn around.

In principle it should be a good match, despite the semi-final. We have just been reminded of Colombia’s attacking line-up, and Marcelo Bielsa has just recently raised his voice about how they are starting to kill off the enjoyment and individuality of football.

In a World Cup qualifier in October, the two sides played out a fine 2-2 draw, while almost to the day three years ago in the Copa América quarter-finals, after 90 minutes without a goal, the Cavaliers were better on goal in the shoot-out. A draw is close to our hearts this time around, but we imagine it won’t be achieved with a 0-0 draw between the sides. We’d rather give the win to the Jameses, but from a betting point of view, this is a very tricky fixture.

Colombia win by penalties @5.50
Draw @3.00
Draw + Over 1.5 goals @5.00
Chasing big odds on Uruguay-Colombia

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