The final could decide the winner of the Ballon d’Or?

Ahead of the summer’s major tournaments, the Brazilian’s gold ball seemed almost a certainty, but a botched Copa could see him miss out on the prize.

At the beginning of June, there was no question that Brazilian Vinícius Jr. would be the winner of the 2024 Ballon d’Or, based on the odds offered by the bookmakers. At the time, we were following another Champions League win for Real Madrid and the bookmakers had virtually decided that Brazilian Vinícius would take this year’s Ballon d’Or. Just over a month ago, the odds on the striker’s success were slashed to ~1.40 and past experience has told us that whoever can go down to such low odds during the year usually wins the award.

But a lot has happened in the last five weeks, including two continental tournaments. The Brazilian national team travelled to the United States as Copa América favourites, but apart from one match, they were a huge disappointment in the qualifying round and were eliminated after the group stage. One of the main culprits of this failure was Vinícius, who not only failed to lead the team, but also undermined his own team with his lack of head and irresponsibility.

The Brazilians really needed a good national team result, as they have a European Championship at the same time. And their big rivals are playing strong teams with good chances. Kylian Mbappe, for example, may be out for Vini because of his semi-final exit to France, but big rival club teammate Jude Bellingham is preparing for an European Championship final. No doubt, if England can win the European Championship, the young Englishman will be the front-runner, as he can claim the same titles as Vinícius, but with perhaps even stronger individual statistics than the Brazilian.

Can Rodri have a real chance of winning the Golden Ball?

However, a third player has emerged on the scene, the Spaniard Rodri. The title-winning defensive midfielder with Man City has become a genius of his time, and is rightly hailed as one of the best of the current crop.

The Spanish national team has marched into the final with the most convincing performance of the European Championship so far, and if they can triumph there too, Rodri, the Spaniards’ captain, would be a serious favourite.

Of course, as a defensive midfielder, he would be at a serious disadvantage in such a poll, but we have seen examples of superstars in the media and goal scorers not being the winners.In 2006, Italy’s World Cup winner was centre-back Fabio Cannavaro, ahead of aces like Zidane and Henry, while in 2018, Luka Modric won the most prestigious award ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo, among others.

Rodri’s current odds are 6.60 at Vegas, but we’re pretty sure he’d ‘arrive’ behind/next to Bellingham in the event of a Spanish European Championship win. Vinícius’ eventual success would smell like sweat from here on in, of course that doesn’t mean anything as the lobby behind him still looks strong as hell…

Ballon d’Or 2024