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Is this the very best bet for the Djokovic – Fritz?
The Serb has won 18 out of 20 sets against the American, so it’s pretty clear who is the favourite in their current clash…
On Tuesday, the semi-finals are on the line in Melbourne, and the first match we’ll be looking at is Novak Djokovic versus Taylor Fritz.
They are preparing for their third consecutive Grand Slam clash and so far the American has failed to surprise the Serbian. The bookmakers have priced the Californian boy accordingly, with Fritz’s victory paying seven times the money at the state office.
For Fritz, the bar must be high in more ways than one, as not only is he 0-8 against Djokovic, but he has never won a Grand Slam quarter-final, where he is 0-2.
He lost one of them to the world number one from Belgrade at last year’s US Open. Despite being on home soil, Fritz was beaten in a frustratingly straightforward defeat, failing to win a set, despite reaching the last eight with great confidence and looking like he could even beat the Serb, who was fighting for his 24th major title.
Their third-round match in 2021, played at Melbourne Park, was much closer. Although Djokovic went 2-0 up in that meeting, Fritz managed to equalise, although the Serb was struggling with an abdominal muscle injury and was in the mix to lose that match. The American, incidentally, also failed to beat Rafa Nadal when he played the Spaniard at Wimbledon with an injury, although that was a huge opportunity.
Whatever the case, Fritz has had his chance to reach the Grand Slam semi-finals and beat the legends at Grand Slams. But he couldn’t make use of any of them. Now he has another chance. Not against an injured Djokovic, but against someone who has come through a very easy last eight and will be fresh and healthy for the quarter-finals.
The biggest question of the match is whether Fritz believes he can win. Even if he doesn’t beat Djokovic, he will at least give himself a chance. It will be a serious challenge for the American because, apart from that match in Melbourne in 2021, he has failed to win a set in their other clashes.
This means that of the 20 sets they have played, Nole has won 18 (!). Obviously, it’s not easy to believe that they will go through…
And then there is Djokovic’s various fantastic records on Rod Laver, where he is almost impossible to beat.
What should we bet on?
There are many ‘ifs’ about Fritz. We know his ability, we know he can play great tennis. But that alone is very little against Djokovic in Melbourne. To win would require immense patience and precision from the American, not just in one rally, but for hours. Well, that’s something we don’t see in him, and he hasn’t started the tournament in great form.
Maybe Fritz will put something together in one set to make the match a little closer, but we still think Djokovic 3-0 is the safest bet.
The Serb doesn’t want to go into overtime ahead of what is expected to be a semi-final against Jannik Sinner, so he could be merciless in punishing the American for every mistake, every omission.
