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Real Madrid are such favourites that they can’t lose – CL history
In this millennium, if a team was as much of a chance as Real Madrid were on Saturday, they didn’t fail.
This year’s Champions League final can hardly be called a paper final, although 14-time winners Real Madrid are not to blame. As a neutral fan, a Real-Bayern or Real-PSG, or even Real-City would be more appealing, but the Blancos have of course survived two very tough matches, so the final could well be the easiest task of the knockout stage for them. But what would Dortmund’s success be worth and what are the chances of the paperwork being overturned?
Well, the odds of @1.67 for Real Madrid to win in 90 minutes are offered by 22bet and the world’s best-known bookmakers, which is a good starting point. In Real’s six straight knockout games in the last six, they have only been given such odds once, at home to Leipzig, which they failed to win.
This kind of favouritism for one team is not unique, we have seen it happen on several occasions in recent years, with the last game of the year being the overwhelming favourite. So let’s look at the recent numbers in a table.
As you can see from the numbers, the favorites have won 8 times in the last 10 years, and the favorites under @1.90 are 2/2.
The last time we had a surprise like Real Madrid was in 2012, when Bayern-Chelsea still came within 1 hundredth of Dortmund-Real on Saturday. Here, the Bavarians were a three-way winner at @1.68, but Drogba’s penalty shoot-outs lifted the trophy and gave them the biggest surprise of the millennium.
That said, in this millennium, if a team has been as much of a favourite in the BL as Real Madrid are now, they have never failed to win the final.
Spanish team is in an exceptionally enviable position
Carlo Ancelotti’s side are preparing for their seventh final since 2000, and although we have not found the numbers for either the 2000 or 2002 finals, they have been far from favourites in their last five matches. They were massive underdogs against Liverpool, but never once have the Spaniards been under @2.00, compared to now.
Dortmund, on the other hand, should be no stranger to the current situation, they similarly thrashed the Bees at Wembley in 2013, when Bayern’s 90 minute win was a bet at under @1.80.
