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We have special free tips for Atlético-Dortmund!
After the future Italian champion, can Atlético now take on Bundesliga 5th?
Obviously, it may seem like a baroque exaggeration to talk about an easy matchup for Atlético Madrid, but let’s not forget that after knocking out CL finalists and future Italian champions Inter, Borussia Dortmund will be next. After the initial odds of a draw, Atlético have emerged as favourites at the bookmakers, but this is a role that suits them less. Let’s see what we can expect at the Wanda Metropolitano!
A sensational game saw the Spanish side progress to the last 8, after a first leg defeat at the hands of this season’s almost unbeaten Inter. Dortmund may be a slightly easier team to beat than Lautaró’s, but Diego Simeone’s mindset is well known, and it may not be the best scenario for him if Atlétic start at home as favourites.
Here, the Colchoneros need to gain an advantage, while Dortmund may think that away is a good X. Of course, we shouldn’t compare this Madrid with the one of years ago, Griezmann’s team is capable of much better attacking football, it’s less about defense.
Of particular interest is that 22bet oddsmakers came out at roughly 50/50 for progression after the draw, but now punters have pushed that to under 1.60 for Atleti. If the form doesn’t necessarily justify it, the power differential does.
Dortmund are in better form, but…
The home side may arrive in a mixed mood, as the last 2 months have not been all about wins. All series considered, Atleti have won only 4 of their last 12 games, have been knocked out of the cup and are in a serious battle for 4th place in La Liga.
But what could be good news for the Argentinian manager is that besides Lemar, only Hermoso is injured, while Depay is likely to be on the bench. So there are no big surprises in the starting line-up, with Morata expected to be the striker alongside Griezmann in a 3-5-2.
The reason why starting at home may not be optimal was also pointed out by coach Cholo, as the away form of the rivals is quite frenetic. Borussia are unbeaten away from home since the beginning of December, having won at Newcastle and Milan in the BL, but have also drawn at Leverkusen and Eindhoven, and most recently won 2-0 away to Bayern.
“We were up against an extremely tough opponent, which is par excellence in the counter-attacking game. They have a very determined game inside both sixteens, perhaps the most intense, fierce game of the remaining eight teams. On top of that, they are unbeaten on the road for 4 months,”
Simeone said of his opponents.
All in all, Dortmund are in better form, but 5th in the German league is a different league to 4th in Spain, and Stuttgart beat Sancho at the weekend.
What should we bet on?
Routine is more on the home side, Dortmund haven’t been to the quarter-finals since 2021, and the last time we saw the Bees beyond that was in 2013, when a losing BL final left the faithful bitter.
We don’t like the 1.86 on offer for the home side, Tico haven’t won two games in a row since January, so we’re not sticking with this tip. However, this team is much more capable of pressing up front, capable of dominant attacking football, which is what we expect from them as favourites in a home leg. An early Spanish goal would help the rest of the match, so this is one of our picks.
Our other tip is on the tackles. Hummels is high on the list of both recovered balls and tackles, averaging 4.5 of the latter in the CL. 22bet are giving him odds of 1.80 to at least get 3 this time too, which seems a smart bet given the supposed nature of the game.
