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These are our top picks for the final round of Serie B
As usual, it’s time to do the maths and look at the different scenarios.
The Serie B regular season concludes on Friday evening, but there are still more questions to be answered. Let’s see what the most interesting matches will be, who needs a win and what the best picks for round 38 could be.
Como or Venezia?
With Parma already assured of promotion, there are two players left in the fight, Como and Venezia. The former will need a win at home to Cosenza, who are playing without a bet, otherwise the Venetian side can go one better.
Venezia, on the other hand, are visiting the very same Spezia where they are fighting for promotion, and the former Serie A side desperately need a win.
Topsters-advice: In our opinion, this match will be a good one to earn money live. If Como can decide the promotion question in their favour early, Venezia can play football without any stakes. We’ll be watching for a Spezia win in live action, and there is plenty of value in a two-goal Como lead, especially if they are leading.
Not many questions in the playoffs
Surprisingly, with the loser of the Como/Venezia matchup, virtually all other positions are sold out. Cremonese won’t play in the first round of the playoffs, while the foursome of Catanzaro, Palermo, Sampdora and Brescia will surely meet in the semi-finals.
Perhaps the most interesting question here is which team would like to meet Catanzaro, who return to the second tier after 17 years, in the first round. Brescia have the best chance of doing so, they just need to beat Bari away from home – and they probably will.
Relegation, playout
Lecco and FeralpiSalo are now set to challenge for Serie C next season, but there are still four teams vying for – or avoiding – the third knockout and two playout spots. What’s certain is that the aforementioned Spezia are a one-win firm stayer, and they can’t finish in the knockout stages either, with better records against Ascoli and Bari.
If the black and whites do not win, Ternana, who are already eliminated, could advance to FeralpiSalo, which is a very good chance. As we wrote, we suspect a Spezia win, but a draw is no good for Terni anyway, as both rivals are better against each other. So an away win for Ternana seems like a strong bet, the already eliminated Salò team already has 10 home defeats, one more here or there doesn’t count.
A win for Ternana would be important if only because, in an extreme case, if both Bari and Ascoli lose, the playout would not be arranged.
There are also Bari-Brescia and Ascoli-Pisa, where it would be surprising to see two away wins… As we wrote, Brescia are not necessarily interested in winning, while the Pisa side have nothing at stake. It is no coincidence that the odds for both teams are around @1.60-1.70.
Best free picks for Serie B
All in all, we’re picking Bari and Ternana to win the bottom of the table, with the latter’s success in particular being pretty obvious…
