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We have a near-double idea for the Georgia-Greece
The stakes are huge: the Georgians would qualify for the first time, while the Greeks would qualify for a major tournament after 2014.
In chronological order, Georgia and Greece will be the first countries to battle it out for the 2024 European Championship on Tuesday. At 20bet, the Hellenes are considered the favourites, even though the meeting will take place in Tbilisi, with the away win being priced at 2.40 times the average.
Team news
The Georgians did badly in their qualifying for the European Championship (only managing to get past Cyprus in their top five), but in the Nations League they have won Group C of League 4, which will give them a place in the qualifying round for Germany.
They beat Luxembourg 2-0 at home in the semi-finals on Thursday, thanks in part to the fact that the equaliser for the mini-state was disallowed by VAR for a foul, and then moments later the Luxembourgers went behind 2-0, which Zivzivadze converted seven minutes later to seal the game.
Kvaratkshelia did not play in that game due to a suspension, but that is now a thing of the past, so the best Georgian player could return to Willy Sagnol’s side. The French coach can therefore field his best and strongest team on Tuesday.
The Greeks have followed a somewhat similar path, also promoted from the C-league in the Nations League, they didn’t shine so much during the qualifiers for the European Championship (apart from one or two good results), finishing behind the French and the Dutch in their group.
In Thursday’s semi-final, however, they put on a show, dispatching Kazakhstan 5-0, and with the score 4-0 at the break, Gus Poyet had some time to rest for the final against Georgia.
The Uruguayan coach, like his colleague, can’t complain and will have his best players, with one or two exceptions, for the crucial meetings.
Free pick for Georgia-Greece
In principle, the Greeks have the better quality team, but with the Georgians being the hosts, the two teams could be close, so it would be no surprise if they were to play a close encounter, which could be decided on a matter of nuances. Or it could well end in extra time, possibly penalty kicks…
So we wouldn’t bet on outcomes and goals, but we would bet on penalty cards. It is likely that, with no margin for error, the stakes are insanely high and there could be a lot of fouls and penalties.
The bookmakers have set the limit at 6.5 in this market, at which we’ll take the over even if Marciniak is the referee. The Polish sportsman is sometimes completely incomprehensible in his conduct of his meetings in terms of cards, but the two national teams are producing cards very nicely (the Georgians received four yellow cards against Luxembourg, the Greeks picked up one against the Kazakhs), and let’s not forget that in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, when they were in the same group, they picked up 7-7 yellow cards back and forth…
And the stakes are much, much higher now, with Georgia qualifying for their first major tournament and Greece looking to qualify for a tournament after the 2024 World Cup in Brazil. In light of all this, we think the over is a playable bet at the 6.5 mark…
