Is this the best bet for the Djokovic – Sinner semi-final?

The Serb has never lost a semi-final at the Australian Open, will the Italian be the first to beat him?

Friday is all about the men in Melbourne with the semi-finals and first up, as 10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic and the young Italian, 4th seed Jannik Sinner, will battle it out. As for the odds on the two-way odds, the Serb is priced at 1.45 to win, while the Italian is at 2.75.

Although Sinner’s qualification pays almost three times the money, this is quite flattering for the Italians, as no one has ever beaten ‘Nole’ at odds under 4.00 (!) in a tournament last year.
Sinner has received such low odds despite the fact that this will be only his second Grand Slam semi-final. His first was against Djokovic at Wimbledon last year. The Italian went into that match with high hopes, having led 2-0 against the Serb the year before and then lost to him in the quarter-finals. But that was an encouraging match from Sinner’s point of view, unlike their semi-final clash, which the Serb drew 3-0.

They also met in the final of the World Championships, which Sinner also entered with high hopes, having beaten Djokovic in the group stage, but he could not beat the Serb in the final, despite playing on home soil. It was a small patch of beauty that the Italian at least managed to beat the world number one in the Davis Cup.

Sinner clearly needs to raise the bar in terms of his head, as his playing skills are already at a very high level at the age of 22. For this reason, it is extremely difficult to predict this semi-final, as only the match will tell whether the Italian is ready for a scalp as big as Djokovic’s.

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Sinner is in absolute form, having reached this stage without losing a set and never before in a Grand Slam tournament. But it can’t be said that it was an easy ride, as his opponents in the previous two rounds were Andrey Rublev and Karen Khachanov, who can fight and are a real treat for everyone.

Djokovic’s progress has been much bumpier, losing sets in three of his five matches and certainly not always looking good on court.

What should we bet on?

As for how long the bookmakers are expecting the match to be, it is telling that the odds are 1.42 for the over 3.5 set option and the over/under line is set at 39.5. It really would be a disappointing one-sided meeting, as this is one of the most anticipated match-ups since the tournament began.

It will be curious to see if Sinner will have any faith at all, as Djokovic has never lost a semi-final – or a final – at Melbourne Park, and last lost on Rod Laver in 2018. The Serb is currently on a 33-match winning streak at the Australian Open, which sets a new record for the most wins by a player in the tournament.

Interestingly, in the last 10 years, Djokovic has played 26 Grand Slam semi-finals and lost only two of them, the last time being a dramatic five-setter at Roland Garros 2019, where he was beaten by Dominic Thiem in the last four.
There is huge potential in the Italian, but he has yet to prove himself in a match like this, and until then the safest bet seems to be a Djokovic win, which we can tune up with a lowly over.

✅ Prediction #1: Djokovic wins and over 33.5 games @2.00 20BET

Betting deadline: 26 January 04:30