Super pick for the final – new free tip for Napoli-Inter

The final on paper will be played on Monday night in Riyadh, a Napoli-Inter clash for the Italian Super Cup. The favourites are clearly the league leaders, but the defending champions could also add a little bit of sparkle to their season with a surprise victory.

The favourite of the final

And why would a win for Walter Mazzarri be unexpected after a 3-0 semi-final victory? Well, the odds tell the tale, as a cup win for the Partenopei would pay @3.20, while a 90-minute win for the southpaw would pay @5.50 times. This also gives us the answer to why we don’t fancy Inter in the final, as Milan are only @1.60 odds in three-way betting.

Of course, you can’t say it’s unfair, Simone Inzaghi’s men are having an amazing year, just as Napoli are having a lousy one, but we’re talking about a final. There is a 20-point difference between the two teams in the Serie A standings, which says everything about the final season.

Even though Napoli scored three goals in the semi-final, the absence of Victor Osimhen was a major blow for Mazzarri. Against Fiorentina, Alessio Zerbin managed a double, but there is little chance of the young winger starting this time, and Mazzarri may stick to a slightly cautious 3-4-3, which is really more like a 5-2-2-1 with Simeone up front. There are no new absentees for Nerazzurri, so the Thuram-Lautaro duo could still be a threat up front.

Best pick for the match

At the beginning of December Inter showed which team is the better team and scored an easy three in Maradona, and this time they are also quite rightly the towering favourites. But as we wrote, 1.60 is really bad odds for Inter to win, let alone 1.30 for the cup.

Our tip is on the cards, of which we expect few. Rapuano is a bit of an unexpected choice, as he is not the most experienced referee in the league, but he will certainly try to play the final with few cards, as he has an average of only 4.40 yellows in the league. Besides, the two teams had a total of 4 yellows in the semi-finals, as they did in the championship in December. And our tip would only lose this time if there were at least 6 such cautions this time.