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On Tuesday, two big guns, Makkelie and Turpin, are leading, so it’s especially exciting to check out the card markets.
Unlike last week, this week will see the rematch of four completely open Champions League duels. With two games resuming from 1-1 draws and two from 1-0 leads, now playing away from home, we’re in for a astonishing clash. First, let’s see what to expect in Tuesday’s two clashes, from the perspective of the cards of course. The odds this time are from 22bet.
Best free pick for Barcelona-Napoli
The clash between Barcelona and Napoli continues from match zero and is a crucial one to see which side can save their season. There will be plenty of excitement between the Catalans, who are at the top of the table, and Napoli, who have shown signs of life following the sacking of Mazzarri. Although the first leg only produced three Catalan cards, the 25 fouls already indicated that the return leg would not be a peaceful one.
The referee this time will be Dutchman Dannie Makkelie, who will be making his sixth European Cup appearance of the season. Although the Newcastle-Milan game was a very tough 7-card scrap, he only handed out 9 yellow cards in the remaining four games.
The two sides met in the Europa League two years ago, when Barca won 4-2 in Naples after a 1-1 draw in Barcelona. The first match resulted in 4 yellow cards, the return only 3.
The match starting from a draw is not the cards’ friend in the sense that neither side necessarily has to show much initiative, so neither side is prepared to defend. At the same time, neither team will be taking excessive risks, and this will be further reduced as the match approaches the break.
An early goal (especially an Italian one) would be good for the cards, but we’re not sure Makkelie is the ideal skipper to jump the 5.0 line. The Dutch ref has only overshot 3 of his last 13 games at this limit, so we’d probably go for the «under» option.
Best free pick for Arsenal-Porto
But it was all topsy-turvy in Porto, where the Portuguese side scored a late goal to beat the English leaders. Arsenal will have to scramble for progression, while Pepé’s side can bring out their tougher side and play a defensive game. The first game resulted in 36(!) fouls, for which 5 yellows are not too many, and Dutch sportsman Gozubuyuk could have given out more.
It will be interesting to see how Clément Turpin will get out of bed on Tuesday, as he often goes to extremes. This will be his sixth meeting this season, and although 22 cards is not a lot, this match is unlikely to be as smooth as the Ferencváros-Olimpiakos rematch.
However, several players are on the verge of suspension, with Declan Rice, Pepe Aquino, Cardoso, Conceicao and Joao Mario all on 2 yellow cards, so they can’t afford another one.
No question, over is the good bet for us. As long as Arsenal are not leading by two, we can expect an inconsistent game from the Portuguese side, but some English cards could slip in. In addition to the 4.5 line over, we also have a special on the away side, with a player special tip.